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新哥本哈根共识计划:发掘最经济有效的疾病斗争方案

时间:2011-09-18 09:05:08  来源:  作者:

更经济有效的战胜艾滋的方案

Bjørn Lomborg's new Copenhagen Consensus project to identify the most cost-effective ways to battle the disease.
Bjørn Lomborg 新哥本哈根共识计划:发掘最经济有效的疾病斗争方案。

By Bjørn LomborgPosted Thursday, Sept. 15, 2011, at 12:29 PM ET
Thirty years ago, the world got its first inkling of impending catastrophe when five young gay men in Los Angeles were struck down by the illness that became known as HIV/AIDS. Today, the disease has a truly global impact, claiming 1.8 million lives annually—the equivalent of wiping out the population of Washington, D.C., three times every year.
30年前,当五个在洛杉矶的年轻男同性恋者被一种疾病击垮时,一场逼近的世界性灾难渐露迹象,而这种疾病正是闻名的艾滋病(获得性免疫缺陷综合征)。今天,这个疾病席卷了全球,据称每年有180万生命因它陨落,相当于每年扫平华盛顿特区的人口三次。

Of course, there have been remarkable scientific breakthroughs since 1981. Scientists established that a previously unknown retrovirus was the cause of AIDS and determined that the virus was primarily transmitted through sexual contact. They created tests that can establish a person's HIV status or gauge the disease's progression. They designed antiretroviral drugs that have made it possible for HIV infection to be a survivable chronic condition.
当然,自从1981年就有很多重要的科学突破。科学家发现了一种过去未知的逆转录病毒是艾滋病的病因,并确定了这种病毒主要是通过性传播的。他们研发了能够测定人的HIV状态和疾病进程的检测方法。他们研制了抗逆转录病毒的药物,使得长期带毒生存成为可能。

Alongside these advances, policymakers, human-rights advocates, and people living with HIV/AIDS have fought hard to reduce stigma and discrimination. And an unprecedented amount of funds has been invested in HIV treatment and prevention. By 2008, total resources for HIV programs in low- and middle-income countries were an incredible 50 times higher than they were just 12 years earlier.
除了这些进步,政策制定者、人权拥护者、艾滋病人及HIV携带者努力减少来自社会的污蔑和歧视。HIV的防治获得了前所未有的巨额基金投资。到2008年为止,不可思议的是,用在中低收入国家的HIV项目的总资源比12年前多了50倍。

But, despite this significant progress, the toll of HIV/AIDS remains excruciating. There are 2.4 million new infections annually and 34 million people living with HIV/AIDS who require treatment to stay alive. There is a widespread misperception in the developed world that we have already won the battle against HIV/AIDS. In reality, the crisis has merely become less visible.
但是,尽管有重要的进步,艾滋病的死亡人数仍然在上升。每年有240万新感染者,3400万活着的病人需要治疗。人们很多都误以为在发达地区我们已经战胜了艾滋病。然而事实上,危机只是不那么明显而已。

Sub-Saharan Africa has 10 percent of the world's population but is home to 70 percent of those living with HIV/AIDS. Across Africa, the disease is estimated to have reduced average national growth rates by 2-4 percentage points a year.
撒哈拉以南非洲只有占世界百分之十的人口,但却有占世界百分之七十的艾滋病人口。整个非洲,这个疾病估计会造成平均国家增长率每年约百分之二到四的减损。

Researchers led by Bernhard Schwartländer, the director of evidence, strategy, and results at UNAIDS, calculated that annual spending of at least $22 billion will be needed by 2015 to achieve universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support.
由UNAIDS的证据、策略和结果项目主管 Bernhard Schwartländer领导的研究者们计算出:到2015年,为成功实现HIV的预防、治疗、保障和支持,将需要每年至少花费220亿美元。
UNAIDS and the Kaiser Family Foundation estimate that in 2010 donors gave $6.9 billion for HIV prevention, care, treatment, and support—down 10 percent from 2009. As a result of the global financial crisis and donor fatigue, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United States, and the European Commission have all reduced their spending.
UNAIDS和Kaise家族基金估计2010年捐助者为HIV的预防、保障、治疗和支持支付的69亿美元比2009年下降了百分之十。由于全球金融危机和捐助者的疲软,丹麦、德国、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、美国和欧委会都已经减少了他们的投入。

The lamentable reality is that securing $22 billion in annual funding by 2015 will be practically impossible. So, it is worth asking another question: What could we achieve with just a small increase in the current funding? That is what the Copenhagen Consensus Center and the Rush Foundation are doing in a new HIV research and analysis project, RethinkHIV.
悲哀的现实正是如此,到2015年保证220亿每年的投入实际上已不可能。所以值得发问:在微小增长的资助下,我们如何才能成功?这正是哥本哈根共识中心和急速基础开展的新的艾滋病研究和分析项目所追求的——重新思索HIV。

There are as many opinions about what should be the top priority for funders as there are options. We spoke with people living with HIV across Africa who have starkly different perspectives. In Kawangware, Kenya, 38-year-old Esther argued passionately for more social-policy reform. She told us, "I believe HIV isn't the only killer. It's also the stigma and the stress that kills faster." In Mungushi, Tanzania, on the other hand, 28-year-old Rehema told us that economic assistance would make the biggest difference. "It is very hard to take the antiretroviral drugs without having any food in the stomach and when I am worrying about where I am going to live," she said.

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