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德国IFO研究机构- Ifo World Economic Survey WES Q4/2009

时间:2009-11-20 10:38:13  来源:  作者:

Latest Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2009
in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris
Clear Improvement in the Ifo World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator rose in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the third time in succession. The rise in the indicator is the result of both more favourable expectations for the coming six months as well as less negative assessments of the current economic situation. The recovery of the world economy is driven especially by the dynamic development in Brazil as well as in India, China and other Asian countries.
The economic climate improved in all major economic regions. The improvement was particularly marked in Asia, where the indicator even surpassed its long-term average. Also in Western Europe and North America the climate indicator rose clearly in the fourth quarter of 2009. The economic expectations are now very optimistic almost everywhere, with the exception of several countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In contrast, the current economic situation is still assessed as decidedly unfavourable in all major regions, although these assessments clearly improved over the previous quarter. The appraisals of the current economic situation are particularly negative in the euro area, North America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.
The inflation expectations for 2009, on a worldwide average, are clearly lower than the inflation estimate for the previous year (2.5% compared to 5.4%). According to the expectations of the WES participants, prices will increase only slightly in the course of the coming six months.
The short-term interest rates will increase again in the coming six months for the first time in more than a year, in the opinion of the WES experts. In accord with the more favourable economic outlook, the WES experts anticipate that also the long-term interest rates are likely to increase in the coming six months in most countries.
An increasing number of WES experts regard the euro as overvalued. The other major world currencies, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound, are now seen as properly valued, on average.
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
 

World Economy (Index, 1995 = 100)
Quarter/year IV/07 I/08 II/08 III/08 IV/08 I/09 II/09 III/09 IV/09
Climate 99.3 90.4 81.4 73.4 60.0 50.1 64.4 78.7 90.4
Situation 118.7 109.6 96.8 85.8 67.6 45.7 38.4 42.0 53.0
Expectations 80.7 71.9 66.7 61.4 52.6 54.4 89.5 114.0 126.3
Figure 1
Chart: Ifo World Economic Climate
Figure 2
Chart: Ifo World Economic Climate - Situation and Expectations
Figure 3
Chart: Economic Climate North America
Chart: Economic Climate Western Europe
Chart: Economic Climate Asia

Climate (1995=100) )
Quarter/year IV/07 I/08 II/08 III/08 IV/08 I/09 II/09 III/09 IV/09
North America 85.7 72.4 60.9 62.7 53.9 48.6 70.6 83.0 90.1
Western Europe 93.0 81.9 75.9 63.1 51.2 45.2 55.4 65.7 76.8
Asia 105.6 100.9 88.0 75.9 61.1 50.0 73.1 94.4 107.4

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The October 2009 survey received responses from 1,026 experts in 88 countries.
The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC). 
 
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